⏱️ 5 min read
History often appears inevitable in retrospect, but many of the most significant events that shaped our world came perilously close to never occurring. From technological breakthroughs to political turning points, numerous famous moments hung by the thinnest of threads. Understanding these near-misses reminds us how fragile historical progress can be and how random chance sometimes plays an unexpectedly crucial role in determining the course of human civilization.
The Moon Landing Nearly Stayed Science Fiction
The Apollo 11 moon landing of 1969 stands as one of humanity’s greatest achievements, yet it almost didn’t happen for several reasons. President Kennedy’s famous commitment to reach the moon before the decade’s end was itself a close call. Kennedy initially showed little interest in space exploration and only made the bold promise after the Soviet Union’s early space successes embarrassed the United States. His advisors were divided on the issue, and the massive budget required faced significant opposition in Congress.
Even more dramatically, the actual landing itself nearly failed. During the descent, the lunar module’s computer became overloaded with data, triggering alarms that could have prompted mission control to abort. With fuel running critically low and only seconds remaining before a mandatory abort, Neil Armstrong manually piloted the craft to safety. The margin between success and failure was approximately 20 seconds of fuel.
D-Day’s Razor-Thin Weather Window
The Allied invasion of Normandy on June 6, 1944, fundamentally changed the trajectory of World War II, but it almost didn’t take place when it did. General Eisenhower had originally scheduled the operation for June 5, but terrible weather forced a postponement. Meteorologists identified a brief break in the storms for June 6, though conditions would still be far from ideal.
The decision was agonizing because the next suitable date wouldn’t occur for several weeks, potentially compromising operational security and troop readiness. Some of Eisenhower’s senior commanders argued for further delays, but the supreme commander made the call to proceed. Had the weather window been missed, the entire course of the European campaign could have been dramatically different, potentially extending the war for months or even years.
The Discovery of Penicillin’s Lucky Accident
Alexander Fleming’s discovery of penicillin in 1928 revolutionized medicine and saved countless millions of lives, but it happened entirely by accident and nearly went unnoticed. Fleming was actually a notoriously disorganized researcher whose laboratory was often cluttered and messy. When he returned from vacation, he found that a mold had contaminated one of his bacterial cultures.
Most researchers would have simply discarded the ruined experiment, and Fleming almost did. However, before cleaning up, he noticed something unusual: the bacteria near the mold had been killed. Even this observation might have led nowhere, as Fleming struggled for years to purify penicillin into a usable form. The breakthrough only came when other scientists, Howard Florey and Ernst Boris Chain, recognized the potential and developed methods for mass production during World War II.
The Declaration of Independence’s Close Vote
The American Declaration of Independence, signed in 1776, represented a definitive break from British rule, but the vote for independence was much closer than many realize. The Continental Congress debated independence intensely, and several colonies initially opposed the measure. Pennsylvania and South Carolina voted against it in early ballots, while New York abstained.
The resolution only passed after intense lobbying and political maneuvering. Had just a few key delegates voted differently, the declaration might have been delayed or rejected entirely. Additionally, the signing itself was risky—delegates knew they were committing treason and would face execution if captured by the British. Several delegates experienced significant pressure from their constituents to oppose independence, making their decision to sign an act of considerable personal courage.
The Internet’s Near-Death Experience
The internet transformed modern civilization, but its early development faced numerous existential threats. In the 1970s and 1980s, the ARPANET project that would evolve into the internet struggled for funding and support. Many telecommunications companies and even computer scientists viewed it as an impractical academic exercise with no commercial future.
The project survived largely due to committed advocates who fought for continued funding despite skepticism. Additionally, the decision to make internet protocols open and non-proprietary was controversial at the time. Companies wanted closed, proprietary networks they could control. Had commercial interests prevailed in establishing incompatible, competing networks rather than the open internet architecture, the connected world we know today might never have emerged.
The Fall of the Berlin Wall’s Miscommunication
The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 symbolized the end of the Cold War, but it happened largely due to a bureaucratic mistake. East German official Günter Schabowski announced new travel regulations at a press conference but was unclear about when they would take effect. When pressed by journalists, he incorrectly stated they were effective immediately.
This miscommunication, broadcast on television, led thousands of East Berliners to rush to border crossings. Confused guards, receiving no clear orders and facing massive crowds, eventually opened the gates. The momentous event that changed world history occurred not through careful planning but through confusion and improvisation. Had the announcement been handled differently, the orderly transition might have taken months or years, potentially allowing hardliners to regain control.
The Fragility of History
These near-misses demonstrate that history’s most famous events often depended on chance, individual decisions, and fortunate timing. Recognizing this fragility provides valuable perspective on current events and future possibilities. While we cannot predict which of today’s decisions will prove historically significant, understanding that pivotal moments often hang in the balance should encourage thoughtful consideration of the choices we make collectively and individually.